Bizzarely, the Irish Times this morning carries an article that is reporting the warning that there might be deaths due to starvation because of the rising cost of food.

The reason behind this shortage is essentially the cost of oil. We have a culture now that depends on energy and a lot of energy. This is making it all a little expensive, particularly since we don’t seem to be in a great hurry to exploit energy that won’t get more expensive (air, wave, etc.), rather we are still dependent on oil but also we are turning to biofuel and this is making food really really expensive. Bread prices have gone up by 20% in Ireland in the last year. Probably will go up by another 20% in the coming year and very soon, a white sliced loaf will be 5 Euro if not 10 Euro and a luxury item.

The prediction used to be that if ever the price of oil went above 50 US dollars a barrel, then it would be financially viable to begin to use alternatives. Well, oil has shot up to 110 USD per barrel and there is no end in sight for the price of oil.

Bizzarely, this will mean that soon, it will be necessary to be wealthy to eat well. That is, unless we see a cultural change.

This is the main point of this post - cultural change and how difficult it is to achieve cultural change.

About 20 years ago, the most powerful economy in the world was Japan. They could buy anything. They were wealthy and they spent and spent and spent. Ultimately, though they got caught out by economies that could do the same job, but do it cheaper. That means China, Korea, Ireland, etc. However, rather than doing a bit of fast moving and re-grouping, the Japanese seem to have covered their ears and started shouting ‘not listening’. The result being that they still bought big cars, they still spent money and their economy went down the toilet.

To revive the economy, the central bank was finally trying to offer money to the market at 0.25% interest. The economy is still not what it was.

The problem was that it was very difficult to effect a cultural change - people resist belt-tightening and what they perceive an erosion of their quality of life….no matter what the consequences.

We have that situation now globally. We have to change how we work. We have to change the food we eat - we really should be eating food grown locally and not imported food. Did you know that Ireland is the biggest exporter of bananas in the EU?

We have to walk to work or to get the bus or the train or at least get a lift from somebody that is going in the same direction.

Just like people used to do before we got so much money.

We have to think about food security in the future. Yes, we can grow food in Ireland, it is, after all a very good place for growing crops. However, if the Irish economy takes a dip and it is more profitable for a producer to export their food to where there are people able to buy the food, where does that leave us?

It might seem strange that we would have this kind of situation and indeed, I feel it is improbable, however, food WILL get to be more expensive, it WILL be a larger fraction of our weekly expenditure, it IS very dependent on energy supply and energy supplies need some kind of boost.

Indeed, the world is now such that by driving your car to work, using up energy, making it more expensive you and I and our governments are going to make the existence of poor people even more precarious.

Comments welcome.

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