Well, according to Paddy Power, the Lisbon Treaty will make it through.  The YES camp are odds-on favourites, with the NO camp being at 2-1.

The interesting one is the margin of victory.  The shortest odds are for a victory between 50.01-54%.  The odds here are 4-7, that is to say if you bet 7 Euro, you win 4.  This is poor and indeed, I have a feeling the margin of victory will be larger.

My reason for thinking this is because, while the opinion polls point to a small margin of victory for the YES camp, the country is not evenly divided in the way in which it will vote.  Working-class areas are resoundingly in favour of the NO vote, however, working-class areas are notorious for not turning up on the day to vote.  So, while you will get an opinion on the ground for the purposes of a poll, these opinions might not translate into an actual vote tomorrow.

Paddy Power is offering 7-4 for a margin of victory between 54.01-58%.  This means you put down 4 euro and you stand to win 7.  Not the best of odds either, but I suspect it is a nicer bet and I might put a tenner on it (would mean I win 17.50 or thereabouts, which is kind-of crap).  I personally think this is the most likely margin of victory, but maybe even at the top end of the scale.

However, if you are feeling adventurous, then at 7-1 you can get a few Euro back with a victory if the margin  is between 58.01 and 62%.  Remember there are three big parties supporting the Treaty, they all have significant political machines and the opponents proves in the last election that they don’t have this kind of machinery.

Go on, go for the 7-1 bet.  But don’t come crying to me if you loose.  Gambling is for losers